Aaron Phillips vs Matt Hobar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record9-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReach70,0"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Headkicks MMATeamOctagon MMA
What's at stake
Matt Hobar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Aaron Phillips carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1523
If they lose-11→ 1491
If they win+11→ 1619
If they lose-21→ 1587
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1580 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1547 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron PhillipsMatt Hobar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Hobar70%
Aaron Phillips 30%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Hobar a 70% favorite over Aaron Phillips in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Matt Hobar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1608 to 1502, a 106-point edge.
Aaron Phillips enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
Aaron Phillips finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Matt Hobar 56%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.