Aaron Phillips vs Matt Hobar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-6-0Record9-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReach70,0"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Headkicks MMATeamOctagon MMA
What's at stake
Matt Hobar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Aaron Phillips carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1495
If they lose-10→ 1463
If they win+10→ 1616
If they lose-22→ 1584
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1569 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Aaron PhillipsMatt Hobar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Hobar51%
Aaron Phillips 49%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Hobar a 51% favorite over Aaron Phillips in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Matt Hobar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1606 to 1473, a 133-point edge.
Aaron Phillips enters on a 8-fight loss streak.
Aaron Phillips finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Matt Hobar 56%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.