Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Phillips vs Ryan MacDonald

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record11-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'11"
TBDReach40.00
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Headkicks MMATeamDisorderly Conduct

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aaron PhillipsNow 1502
If they win+16→ 1518
If they lose-16→ 1486
Ryan MacDonaldNow 1507
If they win+24→ 1531
If they lose-24→ 1483

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1580 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.51
Sig. strikes / min
2.28
53%
Strike accuracy
29%
3.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.49
44%
Strike defense
46%
0.86
Takedown avg.
0
50%
Takedown accuracy
0%
44%
Takedown defense
0%
0.57
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Aaron PhillipsRyan MacDonald
150015502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

6 (50%)
KO/TKO
4 (36%)
2 (17%)
Submission
3 (27%)
4 (33%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Ryan MacDonald70%
Aaron Phillips 30%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Ryan MacDonald a 70% favorite over Aaron Phillips in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1502 vs 1507), separated by just 5 points.

Aaron Phillips enters on a 7-fight loss streak.

Aaron Phillips finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Ryan MacDonald 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.