Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Phillips vs Sam Sicilia

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record18-11-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'8"
TBDReach67,0"
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
Headkicks MMATeamSikjitsu

What's at stake

Sam Sicilia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Aaron Phillips carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aaron PhillipsNow 1502
If they win+19→ 1521
If they lose-13→ 1489
Sam SiciliaNow 1574
If they win+10→ 1584
If they lose-14→ 1560

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1580 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1604 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.51
Sig. strikes / min
2.46
53%
Strike accuracy
34%
3.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.55
44%
Strike defense
59%
0.86
Takedown avg.
1.45
50%
Takedown accuracy
43%
44%
Takedown defense
70%
0.57
Submission avg.
0.87

Trajectory

Aaron PhillipsSam Sicilia
1500155016002019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

6 (50%)
KO/TKO
9 (50%)
2 (17%)
Submission
4 (22%)
4 (33%)
Decision
5 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Sam Sicilia56%
Aaron Phillips 44%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Sam Sicilia a 56% favorite over Aaron Phillips in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Sam Sicilia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1574 to 1502, a 72-point edge.

Aaron Phillips enters on a 7-fight loss streak.

Aaron Phillips finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Sam Sicilia 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.