Aaron Phillips vs Sebastian Polanco
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record3-3-1
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
Headkicks MMATeamDemon Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1518
If they lose-16→ 1486
If they win+24→ 1525
If they lose-24→ 1477
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1579 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1520 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron PhillipsSebastian Polanco
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sebastian Polanco76%
Aaron Phillips 24%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Sebastian Polanco a 76% favorite over Aaron Phillips in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aaron Phillips's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1502 vs 1501), separated by just 1 points.
Aaron Phillips enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
Sebastian Polanco enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Aaron Phillips finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Sebastian Polanco 33%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.