Aaron Pico vs Calvin Kattar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-5-0Record23-10-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'11"
70"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamCarlos Neto BJJ
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683
If they win+12→ 1709
If they lose-12→ 1685
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron PicoCalvin Kattar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aaron Pico70%
Calvin Kattar 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Aaron Pico a 70% favorite over Calvin Kattar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1699 vs 1697), separated by just 2 points.
Calvin Kattar enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Aaron Pico finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Calvin Kattar 57%.
Calvin Kattar carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.