Aaron Pico vs Lerone Murphy
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-5-0Record17-1-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'10"
70"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamManchester Top Team
What's at stake
Lerone Murphy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Aaron Pico carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1730
If they lose-12→ 1698
If they win+12→ 1804
If they lose-20→ 1772
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1704 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Aaron PicoLerone Murphy
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lerone Murphy67%
Aaron Pico 33%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Lerone Murphy a 67% favorite over Aaron Pico in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Lerone Murphy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1792 to 1710, a 82-point edge.
Aaron Pico finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Lerone Murphy 47%.
Lerone Murphy carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.