Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Pico vs Lerone Murphy

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-5-0Record17-1-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'10"
70"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamManchester Top Team

What's at stake

Lerone Murphy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Aaron Pico carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aaron PicoNow 1699
If they win+20→ 1719
If they lose-12→ 1687
Lerone MurphyNow 1791
If they win+12→ 1803
If they lose-20→ 1771

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1704 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.16
Sig. strikes / min
4.48
54%
Strike accuracy
54%
3.11
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.51
45%
Strike defense
62%
6.54
Takedown avg.
1.41
50%
Takedown accuracy
54%
0%
Takedown defense
51%
0
Submission avg.
0.54

Trajectory

Aaron PicoLerone Murphy
1650170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (64%)
KO/TKO
8 (47%)
2 (14%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (21%)
Decision
9 (53%)

Combat Edge model read

Lerone Murphy66%
Aaron Pico 34%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Lerone Murphy a 66% favorite over Aaron Pico in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Lerone Murphy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1791 to 1699, a 92-point edge.

Aaron Pico finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Lerone Murphy 47%.

Lerone Murphy carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.