Aaron Riley vs Bryce Logan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-14-1Record13-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReach70"
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamPower MMA Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1560
If they lose-12→ 1536
If they win+16→ 1556
If they lose-16→ 1524
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1553 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron RileyBryce Logan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Bryce Logan60%
Aaron Riley 40%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Bryce Logan a 60% favorite over Aaron Riley in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aaron Riley's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1548 vs 1540), separated by just 8 points.
Aaron Riley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Bryce Logan enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Aaron Riley finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Bryce Logan 38%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.