Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Riley vs Jorge Gurgel

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

30-14-1Record14-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamTeam Jorge Gurgel

What's at stake

Jorge Gurgel is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Aaron Riley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aaron RileyNow 1548
If they win+13→ 1561
If they lose-11→ 1537
Jorge GurgelNow 1564
If they win+15→ 1579
If they lose-17→ 1547

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1620 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.45
Sig. strikes / min
3.40
35%
Strike accuracy
33%
3.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.83
61%
Strike defense
62%
1.18
Takedown avg.
0.86
35%
Takedown accuracy
25%
61%
Takedown defense
60%
0.15
Submission avg.
0.14

Trajectory

Aaron RileyJorge Gurgel
15501600201220132014

Win method breakdown

9 (30%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
10 (33%)
Submission
10 (71%)
11 (37%)
Decision
4 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Jorge Gurgel54%
Aaron Riley 46%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Jorge Gurgel a 54% favorite over Aaron Riley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Jorge Gurgel holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1564 to 1548, a 16-point edge.

Aaron Riley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jorge Gurgel enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Aaron Riley finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Jorge Gurgel 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.