Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Riley vs Justin Salas

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

30-14-1Record12-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamGrudge Training Center

What's at stake

Justin Salas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Aaron Riley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aaron RileyNow 1548
If they win+14→ 1562
If they lose-10→ 1538
Justin SalasNow 1593
If they win+14→ 1607
If they lose-18→ 1575

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1612 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.45
Sig. strikes / min
3.42
35%
Strike accuracy
43%
3.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.96
61%
Strike defense
69%
1.18
Takedown avg.
2.43
35%
Takedown accuracy
21%
61%
Takedown defense
0%
0.15
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Aaron RileyJustin Salas
15501600165020122013201420152016

Win method breakdown

9 (30%)
KO/TKO
4 (33%)
10 (33%)
Submission
3 (25%)
11 (37%)
Decision
5 (42%)

Combat Edge model read

Justin Salas70%
Aaron Riley 30%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Justin Salas a 70% favorite over Aaron Riley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Justin Salas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1593 to 1548, a 45-point edge.

Aaron Riley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Justin Salas enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Aaron Riley finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Justin Salas 58%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.