Aaron Riley vs Kevin Carrier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-14-1Record5-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'0"
TBDReach74"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamUltimate Athletics
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1560
If they lose-12→ 1536
If they win+24→ 1572
If they lose-24→ 1524
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Aaron RileyKevin Carrier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Carrier54%
Aaron Riley 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Carrier a 54% favorite over Aaron Riley in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aaron Riley's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1548 vs 1548), separated by just 0 points.
Aaron Riley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Aaron Riley finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Carrier 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.