Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Riley vs Robbie Lawler

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

30-14-1Record30-16-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'11"
TBDReach74"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Robbie Lawler is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Aaron Riley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aaron RileyNow 1548
If they win+19→ 1567
If they lose-5→ 1543
Robbie LawlerNow 1788
If they win+5→ 1793
If they lose-19→ 1769

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1760 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.45
Sig. strikes / min
3.85
35%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.67
61%
Strike defense
59%
1.18
Takedown avg.
0.65
35%
Takedown accuracy
64%
61%
Takedown defense
65%
0.15
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Aaron RileyRobbie Lawler
160017001800201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

9 (30%)
KO/TKO
22 (73%)
10 (33%)
Submission
1 (3%)
11 (37%)
Decision
7 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Robbie Lawler84%
Aaron Riley 16%Elo baseline: 80%

The Combat Edge model makes Robbie Lawler a 84% favorite over Aaron Riley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (80%).

Robbie Lawler holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1788 to 1548, a 240-point edge.

Aaron Riley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Aaron Riley finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Robbie Lawler 77%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.