Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Riley vs Shane Nelson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

30-14-1Record16-7-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamBJ Penn's MMA

What's at stake

Shane Nelson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Aaron Riley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aaron RileyNow 1548
If they win+15→ 1563
If they lose-9→ 1539
Shane NelsonNow 1641
If they win+12→ 1653
If they lose-20→ 1621

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1534 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.45
Sig. strikes / min
1.38
35%
Strike accuracy
31%
3.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.84
61%
Strike defense
61%
1.18
Takedown avg.
1.31
35%
Takedown accuracy
18%
61%
Takedown defense
55%
0.15
Submission avg.
1.64

Trajectory

Aaron RileyShane Nelson
155016001650201220132014

Win method breakdown

9 (30%)
KO/TKO
5 (31%)
10 (33%)
Submission
3 (19%)
11 (37%)
Decision
8 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Shane Nelson72%
Aaron Riley 28%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Shane Nelson a 72% favorite over Aaron Riley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Shane Nelson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1641 to 1548, a 93-point edge.

Aaron Riley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Aaron Riley finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Shane Nelson 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.