Aaron Riley vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-14-1Record25-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'0"
TBDReach76"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
Tony Ferguson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Aaron Riley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1564
If they lose-8→ 1540
If they win+8→ 1667
If they lose-16→ 1643
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron RileyTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tony Ferguson72%
Aaron Riley 28%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Tony Ferguson a 72% favorite over Aaron Riley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Tony Ferguson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1659 to 1548, a 111-point edge.
Aaron Riley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Aaron Riley finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.