Aaron Rosa vs Joey Beltran
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-7-0Record18-15-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Rodrigo Pinheiro Brazilian Jiu-JitsuTeamBlackline
What's at stake
Aaron Rosa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Joey Beltran carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1620
If they lose-15→ 1596
If they win+15→ 1540
If they lose-9→ 1516
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron RosaJoey Beltran
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aaron Rosa72%
Joey Beltran 28%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Aaron Rosa a 72% favorite over Joey Beltran in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Aaron Rosa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1611 to 1525, a 86-point edge.
Aaron Rosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Aaron Rosa finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Joey Beltran 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.