Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Rosa vs Leonardo Silva

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-7-0Record22-10-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
TBDReach75"
205 lbsWeight206 lbs
Rodrigo Pinheiro Brazilian Jiu-JitsuTeamChina Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aaron RosaNow 1611
If they win+12→ 1623
If they lose-12→ 1599
Leonardo SilvaNow 1616
If they win+12→ 1628
If they lose-12→ 1604

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1581 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.03
Sig. strikes / min
1.07
47%
Strike accuracy
40%
4.41
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
0.54
45%
Strike defense
50%
0.36
Takedown avg.
24.11
33%
Takedown accuracy
50%
86%
Takedown defense
0%
0.36
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Aaron RosaLeonardo Silva
160016502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (33%)
KO/TKO
12 (55%)
4 (22%)
Submission
4 (18%)
8 (44%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Leonardo Silva63%
Aaron Rosa 37%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Leonardo Silva a 63% favorite over Aaron Rosa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1611 vs 1616), separated by just 5 points.

Aaron Rosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Leonardo Silva enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Aaron Rosa finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Leonardo Silva 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.