Aaron Rosa vs Marcin Prachnio
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-7-0Record17-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
TBDReach74"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Rodrigo Pinheiro Brazilian Jiu-JitsuTeamTatsujin Dojo
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1623
If they lose-12→ 1599
If they win+12→ 1623
If they lose-12→ 1599
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron RosaMarcin Prachnio
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcin Prachnio52%
Aaron Rosa 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcin Prachnio a 52% favorite over Aaron Rosa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aaron Rosa's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1611 vs 1611), separated by just 0 points.
Aaron Rosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcin Prachnio enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Aaron Rosa finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Marcin Prachnio 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.