Aaron Rosa vs Matt Lucas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-7-0Record15-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Rodrigo Pinheiro Brazilian Jiu-JitsuTeamArizona Combat Sports
What's at stake
Aaron Rosa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Matt Lucas carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1620
If they lose-15→ 1596
If they win+30→ 1551
If they lose-18→ 1503
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1664 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aaron Rosa60%
Matt Lucas 40%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Aaron Rosa a 60% favorite over Matt Lucas in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Aaron Rosa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1611 to 1521, a 90-point edge.
Aaron Rosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Aaron Rosa finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Matt Lucas 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.