Aaron Simpson vs Brad Tavares
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record21-12-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReach74"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Brad Tavares is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Aaron Simpson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1564
If they lose-9→ 1532
If they win+7→ 1705
If they lose-17→ 1681
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1695 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron SimpsonBrad Tavares
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brad Tavares88%
Aaron Simpson 12%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Brad Tavares a 88% favorite over Aaron Simpson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Brad Tavares holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1698 to 1541, a 157-point edge.
Aaron Simpson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Brad Tavares enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Aaron Simpson finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Brad Tavares 33%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.