Aaron Simpson vs Chris Leben
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record22-12-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamAlliance MMA· 1651 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Chris Leben is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Aaron Simpson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1562
If they lose-12→ 1530
If they win+9→ 1644
If they lose-15→ 1620
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1659 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1630 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Aaron SimpsonChris Leben
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Leben66%
Aaron Simpson 34%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Leben a 66% favorite over Aaron Simpson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Chris Leben holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1635 to 1542, a 93-point edge.
Aaron Simpson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Chris Leben enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Aaron Simpson finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Chris Leben 77%.
Aaron Simpson and Chris Leben share 1 common opponent: Mark Munoz.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.