Aaron Simpson vs Ed Herman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record26-16-0
WelterweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight205 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamAmerican Top Team Portland
What's at stake
Ed Herman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Aaron Simpson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1562
If they lose-11→ 1530
If they win+9→ 1651
If they lose-15→ 1627
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1640 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron SimpsonEd Herman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ed Herman68%
Aaron Simpson 32%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Ed Herman a 68% favorite over Aaron Simpson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Ed Herman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1642 to 1541, a 101-point edge.
Aaron Simpson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ed Herman enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Aaron Simpson finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Ed Herman 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.