Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Simpson vs Eric Schafer

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record14-8-2
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamRed Schafer MMA

What's at stake

Eric Schafer is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Aaron Simpson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aaron SimpsonNow 1541
If they win+20→ 1561
If they lose-12→ 1529
Eric SchaferNow 1623
If they win+12→ 1635
If they lose-20→ 1603

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1558 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.60
Sig. strikes / min
1.89
53%
Strike accuracy
34%
2.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.38
56%
Strike defense
57%
3.78
Takedown avg.
1.81
35%
Takedown accuracy
36%
83%
Takedown defense
50%
0.47
Submission avg.
1.81

Trajectory

Aaron SimpsonEric Schafer
1500155016001650201120122013201420152016

Win method breakdown

6 (50%)
KO/TKO
4 (31%)
1 (8%)
Submission
8 (62%)
5 (42%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Eric Schafer72%
Aaron Simpson 28%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Eric Schafer a 72% favorite over Aaron Simpson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Eric Schafer holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1623 to 1541, a 82-point edge.

Aaron Simpson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Aaron Simpson finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Eric Schafer 92%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.