Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Simpson vs Jonathan Hanes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record6-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamFitness Quest

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aaron SimpsonNow 1541
If they win+16→ 1557
If they lose-16→ 1525
Jonathan HanesNow 1543
If they win+16→ 1559
If they lose-16→ 1527

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.60
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
53%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
56%
Strike defense
TBD
3.78
Takedown avg.
TBD
35%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
83%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.47
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Aaron SimpsonJonathan Hanes
14501500155016002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (50%)
KO/TKO
3 (50%)
1 (8%)
Submission
1 (17%)
5 (42%)
Decision
2 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Jonathan Hanes73%
Aaron Simpson 27%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jonathan Hanes a 73% favorite over Aaron Simpson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1541 vs 1543), separated by just 2 points.

Aaron Simpson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Aaron Simpson finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Jonathan Hanes 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.