Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Simpson vs Kenny Robertson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record15-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
TBDReach74,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamCentral Illinois Combat Club

What's at stake

Kenny Robertson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Aaron Simpson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aaron SimpsonNow 1541
If they win+20→ 1561
If they lose-12→ 1529
Kenny RobertsonNow 1636
If they win+12→ 1648
If they lose-20→ 1616

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1632 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.60
Sig. strikes / min
3.72
53%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.02
56%
Strike defense
52%
3.78
Takedown avg.
1.37
35%
Takedown accuracy
27%
83%
Takedown defense
57%
0.47
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Aaron SimpsonKenny Robertson
150015501600165020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

6 (50%)
KO/TKO
4 (27%)
1 (8%)
Submission
9 (60%)
5 (42%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Kenny Robertson75%
Aaron Simpson 25%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Kenny Robertson a 75% favorite over Aaron Simpson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Kenny Robertson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1636 to 1541, a 95-point edge.

Aaron Simpson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Kenny Robertson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Aaron Simpson finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Kenny Robertson 87%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.