Aaron Simpson vs Mark Munoz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record14-6-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamReign MMA
What's at stake
Mark Munoz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Aaron Simpson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1561
If they lose-12→ 1529
If they win+12→ 1651
If they lose-20→ 1619
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron SimpsonMark Munoz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mark Munoz72%
Aaron Simpson 28%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Mark Munoz a 72% favorite over Aaron Simpson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Mark Munoz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1639 to 1541, a 98-point edge.
Aaron Simpson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Aaron Simpson finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Mark Munoz 50%.
Aaron Simpson and Mark Munoz share 1 common opponent: Chris Leben.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.