Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Simpson vs Mike Pierce

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record17-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamSports Lab

What's at stake

Mike Pierce is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Aaron Simpson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aaron SimpsonNow 1541
If they win+23→ 1564
If they lose-9→ 1532
Mike PierceNow 1715
If they win+6→ 1721
If they lose-18→ 1697

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1611 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.60
Sig. strikes / min
2.62
53%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.36
56%
Strike defense
62%
3.78
Takedown avg.
3.08
35%
Takedown accuracy
43%
83%
Takedown defense
71%
0.47
Submission avg.
0.25

Trajectory

Aaron SimpsonMike Pierce
15001600170020112012201320142015

Win method breakdown

6 (50%)
KO/TKO
8 (47%)
1 (8%)
Submission
1 (6%)
5 (42%)
Decision
8 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Pierce83%
Aaron Simpson 17%Elo baseline: 73%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Pierce a 83% favorite over Aaron Simpson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).

Mike Pierce holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1541, a 174-point edge.

Aaron Simpson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Mike Pierce enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Aaron Simpson finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Mike Pierce 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.