Aaron Simpson vs Mike Pierce
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record17-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Mike Pierce is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Aaron Simpson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1565
If they lose-9→ 1533
If they win+6→ 1721
If they lose-18→ 1697
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1611 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Aaron SimpsonMike Pierce
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mike Pierce72%
Aaron Simpson 28%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Mike Pierce a 72% favorite over Aaron Simpson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Mike Pierce holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1542, a 173-point edge.
Aaron Simpson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mike Pierce enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Aaron Simpson finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Mike Pierce 53%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.