Aaron Simpson vs Máté Kertész
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record15-11-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamBSK Crossfight
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1557
If they lose-16→ 1525
If they win+12→ 1551
If they lose-12→ 1527
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron SimpsonMáté Kertész
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Máté Kertész62%
Aaron Simpson 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Máté Kertész a 62% favorite over Aaron Simpson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aaron Simpson's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1541 vs 1539), separated by just 2 points.
Aaron Simpson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Máté Kertész enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Aaron Simpson finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Máté Kertész 40%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.