Aaron Simpson vs Rustam Serbiev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record9-6-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReach69"
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1557
If they lose-16→ 1525
If they win+16→ 1556
If they lose-16→ 1524
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron SimpsonRustam Serbiev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rustam Serbiev63%
Aaron Simpson 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rustam Serbiev a 63% favorite over Aaron Simpson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aaron Simpson's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1541 vs 1540), separated by just 1 points.
Aaron Simpson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Aaron Simpson finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Rustam Serbiev 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.