Aaron Simpson vs Tim McKenzie
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record14-9-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight174 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamTBD
What's at stake
Tim McKenzie is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Aaron Simpson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1560
If they lose-13→ 1528
If they win+13→ 1623
If they lose-19→ 1591
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron SimpsonTim McKenzie
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tim McKenzie69%
Aaron Simpson 31%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Tim McKenzie a 69% favorite over Aaron Simpson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Tim McKenzie holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1610 to 1541, a 69-point edge.
Aaron Simpson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Aaron Simpson finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Tim McKenzie 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.