Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Simpson vs Tom Lawlor

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tom Lawlor
us

Tom Lawlor

“Filthy”

11-8-0Light HeavyweightPFL

1583Solid

Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record11-8-0
WelterweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach74,0"
170 lbsWeight205 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamThe Jungle MMA

What's at stake

Tom Lawlor is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Aaron Simpson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aaron SimpsonNow 1541
If they win+18→ 1559
If they lose-14→ 1527
Tom LawlorNow 1583
If they win+14→ 1597
If they lose-18→ 1565

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1636 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.60
Sig. strikes / min
2.50
53%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.41
56%
Strike defense
61%
3.78
Takedown avg.
2.46
35%
Takedown accuracy
32%
83%
Takedown defense
58%
0.47
Submission avg.
1.38

Trajectory

Aaron SimpsonTom Lawlor
15001550160020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

6 (50%)
KO/TKO
4 (36%)
1 (8%)
Submission
4 (36%)
5 (42%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Tom Lawlor63%
Aaron Simpson 37%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Tom Lawlor a 63% favorite over Aaron Simpson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Tom Lawlor holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1583 to 1541, a 42-point edge.

Aaron Simpson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Aaron Simpson finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Tom Lawlor 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.