Aaron Tau vs Matheus Nicolau
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-1-0Record19-5-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'6"
66"Reach66"
126 lbsWeight125 lbs
City KickboxingTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-16→ 1653
If they win+16→ 1679
If they lose-16→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1494 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1646 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Aaron TauMatheus Nicolau
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matheus Nicolau60%
Aaron Tau 40%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Matheus Nicolau a 60% favorite over Aaron Tau in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aaron Tau's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1669 vs 1663), separated by just 6 points.
Aaron Tau enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Aaron Tau finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Nicolau 53%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.