Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Wetherspoon vs TJ Brown

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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TJ Brown
us

TJ Brown

“Downtown”

20-12-0LightweightRDC

1601Solid

Tale of the tape

10-5-0Record20-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'9"
TBDReach72"
145 lbsWeight156 lbs
Team OyamaTeamWestside MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aaron WetherspoonNow 1601
If they win+16→ 1617
If they lose-16→ 1585
TJ BrownNow 1601
If they win+12→ 1613
If they lose-12→ 1589

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1549 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
TBD
Strike accuracy
45%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.89
TBD
Strike defense
49%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.41
TBD
Takedown accuracy
58%
TBD
Takedown defense
37%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.31

Trajectory

Aaron WetherspoonTJ Brown
160020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

6 (60%)
KO/TKO
4 (20%)
1 (10%)
Submission
12 (60%)
3 (30%)
Decision
4 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Aaron Wetherspoon and TJ Brown within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1601 vs 1601), separated by just 0 points.

Aaron Wetherspoon finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, TJ Brown 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.