Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Joe Ellenberger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-4-0Record15-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
69"Reach72,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fortis MMATeamPremier Combat Center
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1669
If they win+16→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1669
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1569 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Abdul-Kareem Al-SelwadyJoe Ellenberger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady70%
Joe Ellenberger 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady a 70% favorite over Joe Ellenberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1685 vs 1685), separated by just 0 points.
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Joe Ellenberger 80%.
Joe Ellenberger carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.