Combat Edge Intelligence

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Vagner Rocha

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-4-0Record14-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'11"
69"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fortis MMATeamTeam VRMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Abdul-Kareem Al-SelwadyNow 1685
If they win+16→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1669
Vagner RochaNow 1684
If they win+16→ 1700
If they lose-16→ 1668

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1569 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1537 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.14
Sig. strikes / min
2.64
35%
Strike accuracy
43%
3.60
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.50
59%
Strike defense
48%
2.32
Takedown avg.
1.40
31%
Takedown accuracy
33%
20%
Takedown defense
50%
0
Submission avg.
1.86

Trajectory

Abdul-Kareem Al-SelwadyVagner Rocha
16501700201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (50%)
KO/TKO
3 (21%)
2 (13%)
Submission
8 (57%)
6 (38%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady70%
Vagner Rocha 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady a 70% favorite over Vagner Rocha in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1685 vs 1684), separated by just 1 points.

Vagner Rocha enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Vagner Rocha 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.