Combat Edge Intelligence

Abe Alsaghir vs Joe Ellenberger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-0-0Record15-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
72" Reach72,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
TeamPremier Combat Center

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Abe AlsaghirNow 1685
If they win+24→ 1709
If they lose-24→ 1661
Joe EllenbergerNow 1685
If they win+16→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1669

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1499 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.62
TBD
Strike accuracy
47%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.45
TBD
Strike defense
48%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.17
TBD
Takedown accuracy
40%
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.06

Trajectory

Abe AlsaghirJoe Ellenberger
16001650170020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (44%)
KO/TKO
8 (53%)
3 (33%)
Submission
4 (27%)
2 (22%)
Decision
3 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Abe Alsaghir81%
Joe Ellenberger 19%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Abe Alsaghir a 81% favorite over Joe Ellenberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1685 vs 1685), separated by just 0 points.

Abe Alsaghir enters on a 9-fight win streak.

Abe Alsaghir finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Joe Ellenberger 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.