Combat Edge Intelligence

Abel Trujillo vs Gleison Tibau

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-8-0Record38-19-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'10"
70,0"Reach71,0"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
BlackziliansTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Gleison Tibau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Abel Trujillo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Abel TrujilloNow 1615
If they win+14→ 1629
If they lose-10→ 1605
Gleison TibauNow 1675
If they win+10→ 1685
If they lose-14→ 1661

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1666 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.65
Sig. strikes / min
1.95
41%
Strike accuracy
32%
2.31
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.51
60%
Strike defense
63%
2.18
Takedown avg.
4.08
45%
Takedown accuracy
54%
40%
Takedown defense
92%
0.44
Submission avg.
0.83

Trajectory

Abel TrujilloGleison Tibau
160016501700201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

5 (36%)
KO/TKO
4 (11%)
4 (29%)
Submission
15 (39%)
5 (36%)
Decision
19 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Gleison Tibau56%
Abel Trujillo 44%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Gleison Tibau a 56% favorite over Abel Trujillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Gleison Tibau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1675 to 1615, a 60-point edge.

Abel Trujillo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Abel Trujillo finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Gleison Tibau 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.