Combat Edge Intelligence

Abel Trujillo vs John Makdessi

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-8-0Record18-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'8"
70,0"Reach68"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
BlackziliansTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

John Makdessi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Abel Trujillo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Abel TrujilloNow 1615
If they win+13→ 1628
If they lose-11→ 1604
John MakdessiNow 1646
If they win+15→ 1661
If they lose-17→ 1629

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1666 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1647 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.65
Sig. strikes / min
5.52
41%
Strike accuracy
50%
2.31
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.15
60%
Strike defense
68%
2.18
Takedown avg.
0
45%
Takedown accuracy
0%
40%
Takedown defense
86%
0.44
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Abel TrujilloJohn Makdessi
1600165020162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

5 (36%)
KO/TKO
9 (50%)
4 (29%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (36%)
Decision
9 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

John Makdessi56%
Abel Trujillo 44%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes John Makdessi a 56% favorite over Abel Trujillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

John Makdessi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1646 to 1615, a 31-point edge.

Abel Trujillo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

John Makdessi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Abel Trujillo finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, John Makdessi 50%.

Abel Trujillo carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.