Combat Edge Intelligence

Abel Trujillo vs Michael Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-8-0Record24-20-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
70,0"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
BlackziliansTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Abel TrujilloNow 1615
If they win+12→ 1627
If they lose-12→ 1603
Michael JohnsonNow 1613
If they win+12→ 1625
If they lose-12→ 1601

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1666 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.65
Sig. strikes / min
4.28
41%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.31
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.79
60%
Strike defense
59%
2.18
Takedown avg.
0.58
45%
Takedown accuracy
39%
40%
Takedown defense
81%
0.44
Submission avg.
0.04

Trajectory

Abel TrujilloMichael Johnson
1600165020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (36%)
KO/TKO
10 (42%)
4 (29%)
Submission
2 (8%)
5 (36%)
Decision
12 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Michael Johnson61%
Abel Trujillo 39%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Michael Johnson a 61% favorite over Abel Trujillo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Abel Trujillo's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1615 vs 1613), separated by just 2 points.

Abel Trujillo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Abel Trujillo finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Michael Johnson 50%.

Michael Johnson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.