Combat Edge Intelligence

Abel Trujillo vs Roger Bowling

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-8-0Record12-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'8"
70,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
BlackziliansTeamTeam Vision

What's at stake

Abel Trujillo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Roger Bowling carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Abel TrujilloNow 1615
If they win+11→ 1626
If they lose-13→ 1602
Roger BowlingNow 1578
If they win+18→ 1596
If they lose-14→ 1564

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1666 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1577 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.65
Sig. strikes / min
3.90
41%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.31
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.86
60%
Strike defense
51%
2.18
Takedown avg.
3.09
45%
Takedown accuracy
44%
40%
Takedown defense
27%
0.44
Submission avg.
0.88

Trajectory

Abel TrujilloRoger Bowling
160016502014201520162017

Win method breakdown

5 (36%)
KO/TKO
8 (67%)
4 (29%)
Submission
2 (17%)
5 (36%)
Decision
2 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Abel Trujillo62%
Roger Bowling 38%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Abel Trujillo a 62% favorite over Roger Bowling in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Abel Trujillo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1615 to 1578, a 37-point edge.

Abel Trujillo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Abel Trujillo finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Roger Bowling 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.