Abraham Bably vs Nick Penner
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-3-0Record11-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'10"Height6'0"
74"ReachTBD
242 lbsWeight205 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamFrank Lee's Muay Thai
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1641
If they lose-16→ 1609
If they win+16→ 1637
If they lose-16→ 1605
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Abraham BablyNick Penner
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Abraham Bably72%
Nick Penner 28%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Abraham Bably a 72% favorite over Nick Penner in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1625 vs 1621), separated by just 4 points.
Nick Penner enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Abraham Bably finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Nick Penner 82%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.