Combat Edge Intelligence

Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs David Zawada

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-4-1Record20-13-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'0"
72"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Fightspirit TeamTeamUFD Gym

What's at stake

Abubakar Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — David Zawada carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Abubakar NurmagomedovNow 1687
If they win+10→ 1697
If they lose-22→ 1665
David ZawadaNow 1560
If they win+16→ 1576
If they lose-8→ 1552

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1607 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1612 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.78
Sig. strikes / min
3.84
53%
Strike accuracy
41%
2.61
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.54
65%
Strike defense
56%
1.25
Takedown avg.
0.97
22%
Takedown accuracy
17%
89%
Takedown defense
57%
0
Submission avg.
1.69

Trajectory

Abubakar NurmagomedovDavid Zawada
155016001650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (35%)
KO/TKO
12 (60%)
4 (24%)
Submission
5 (25%)
7 (41%)
Decision
3 (15%)

Combat Edge model read

Abubakar Nurmagomedov72%
David Zawada 28%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Abubakar Nurmagomedov a 72% favorite over David Zawada in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Abubakar Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1560, a 127-point edge.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, David Zawada 85%.

David Zawada carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.