Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs Jared Gooden
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-4-1Record23-12-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'4"
72"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
Fightspirit TeamTeamX3 Sports
What's at stake
Abubakar Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Jared Gooden carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1701
If they lose-19→ 1669
If they win+14→ 1642
If they lose-10→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1609 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Abubakar NurmagomedovJared Gooden
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Abubakar Nurmagomedov62%
Jared Gooden 38%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Abubakar Nurmagomedov a 62% favorite over Jared Gooden in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Abubakar Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1688 to 1628, a 60-point edge.
Jared Gooden enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Abubakar Nurmagomedov finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Jared Gooden 78%.
Jared Gooden carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.