Abubakar Vagaev vs Michael Chiesa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-4-0Record20-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'1"
-Reach75"
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fight Club Akhmat· 1683 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamSikjitsu
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1772
If they lose-12→ 1748
If they win+12→ 1770
If they lose-12→ 1746
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1639 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Abubakar VagaevMichael Chiesa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Abubakar Vagaev60%
Michael Chiesa 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Abubakar Vagaev a 60% favorite over Michael Chiesa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1760 vs 1758), separated by just 2 points.
Abubakar Vagaev enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Abubakar Vagaev finishes 20% of wins inside the distance, Michael Chiesa 65%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.