Combat Edge Intelligence

Adam Cullen vs Jason Novelli

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-3-0Record12-3-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height6'0"
-Reach75,0"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Next Generation MMA LiverpoolTeamTeam Quest

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Adam CullenNow 1638
If they win+16→ 1654
If they lose-16→ 1622
Jason NovelliNow 1637
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1502 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1548 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.73
TBD
Strike accuracy
24%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.55
TBD
Strike defense
67%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.70
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
TBD
Takedown defense
100%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Adam CullenJason Novelli
1600165020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (42%)
KO/TKO
3 (25%)
5 (42%)
Submission
6 (50%)
2 (17%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Adam Cullen70%
Jason Novelli 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Adam Cullen a 70% favorite over Jason Novelli in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1638 vs 1637), separated by just 1 points.

Adam Cullen enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Adam Cullen finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Jason Novelli 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.