Adam Fugitt vs Mats Nilsson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-6-0Record11-4-1
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
77"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamRumble Sports
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1594
If they win+16→ 1627
If they lose-16→ 1595
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1541 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Adam FugittMats Nilsson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Adam Fugitt64%
Mats Nilsson 36%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Adam Fugitt a 64% favorite over Mats Nilsson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mats Nilsson's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1610 vs 1611), separated by just 1 points.
Adam Fugitt enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mats Nilsson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Adam Fugitt finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Mats Nilsson 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.