Combat Edge Intelligence

Adam Fugitt vs Matthew Semelsberger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-6-0Record11-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'1"
77"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamClinch Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Adam FugittNow 1608
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
Matthew SemelsbergerNow 1608
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1610 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1647 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.59
Sig. strikes / min
3.77
46%
Strike accuracy
43%
4.54
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.24
51%
Strike defense
54%
1.83
Takedown avg.
1.01
25%
Takedown accuracy
57%
50%
Takedown defense
46%
0
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Adam FugittMatthew Semelsberger
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
3 (30%)
Submission
1 (9%)
2 (20%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Adam Fugitt60%
Matthew Semelsberger 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Adam Fugitt a 60% favorite over Matthew Semelsberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1608 vs 1608), separated by just 0 points.

Adam Fugitt enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Adam Fugitt finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Matthew Semelsberger 64%.

Adam Fugitt carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.