Combat Edge Intelligence

Adam Khaliev vs Mike Graves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-0-0Record11-2-2
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReach71"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Red Fury Fight TeamTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Adam KhalievNow 1657
If they win+24→ 1681
If they lose-24→ 1633
Mike GravesNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1509 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0
Sig. strikes / min
1.25
TBD
Strike accuracy
54%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.47
TBD
Strike defense
59%
TBD
Takedown avg.
4.80
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
67%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

Adam KhalievMike Graves
165017002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (43%)
KO/TKO
5 (45%)
2 (29%)
Submission
3 (27%)
2 (29%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Graves63%
Adam Khaliev 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Graves a 63% favorite over Adam Khaliev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Adam Khaliev's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1657), separated by just 0 points.

Adam Khaliev enters on a 7-fight win streak.

Adam Khaliev finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Mike Graves 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.