Combat Edge Intelligence

Adam Masaev vs Carlos Leal

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Carlos Leal
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Carlos Leal

“The Lion”

23-7-0WelterweightUFC

1714Good

Tale of the tape

12-0-0Record23-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'11"
-Reach74"
162 lbsWeight169 lbs
Tactical Fight TeamTeamThai Brasil

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Adam MasaevNow 1715
If they win+16→ 1731
If they lose-16→ 1699
Carlos LealNow 1714
If they win+12→ 1726
If they lose-12→ 1702

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1507 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1631 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
9.57
TBD
Strike accuracy
51%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
7.61
TBD
Strike defense
53%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.75
TBD
Takedown accuracy
25%
TBD
Takedown defense
90%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Adam MasaevCarlos Leal
1700202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (17%)
KO/TKO
11 (52%)
9 (75%)
Submission
2 (10%)
1 (8%)
Decision
8 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Adam Masaev53%
Carlos Leal 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Adam Masaev a 53% favorite over Carlos Leal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1715 vs 1714), separated by just 1 points.

Adam Masaev enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Adam Masaev finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Carlos Leal 62%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.