Combat Edge Intelligence

Adam Wieczorek vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record22-9-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'1"
46,0"Reach75"
232 lbsWeight262 lbs
AKS ChorzowTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Adam WieczorekNow 1659
If they win+17→ 1676
If they lose-15→ 1644
Marcos Rogerio de LimaNow 1672
If they win+15→ 1687
If they lose-17→ 1655

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1686 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.68
Sig. strikes / min
3.70
39%
Strike accuracy
58%
1.87
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.90
49%
Strike defense
52%
0.41
Takedown avg.
1.40
33%
Takedown accuracy
46%
59%
Takedown defense
59%
0.41
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

Adam WieczorekMarcos Rogerio de Lima
160016501700202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
15 (68%)
6 (55%)
Submission
3 (14%)
1 (9%)
Decision
4 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcos Rogerio de Lima54%
Adam Wieczorek 46%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcos Rogerio de Lima a 54% favorite over Adam Wieczorek in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1659 vs 1672), separated by just 13 points.

Adam Wieczorek finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Marcos Rogerio de Lima 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.