Combat Edge Intelligence

Adam Wieczorek vs Rodrigo Nascimento

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record11-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'4"
46,0"Reach80"
232 lbsWeight265 lbs
AKS ChorzowTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Adam WieczorekNow 1661
If they win+16→ 1677
If they lose-16→ 1645
Rodrigo NascimentoNow 1666
If they win+16→ 1682
If they lose-16→ 1650

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1653 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.68
Sig. strikes / min
3.71
39%
Strike accuracy
47%
1.87
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.34
49%
Strike defense
45%
0.41
Takedown avg.
1.02
33%
Takedown accuracy
38%
59%
Takedown defense
61%
0.41
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

Adam WieczorekRodrigo Nascimento
16501700202320242025

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
2 (18%)
6 (55%)
Submission
6 (55%)
1 (9%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Adam Wieczorek and Rodrigo Nascimento within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1661 vs 1666), separated by just 5 points.

Adam Wieczorek finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Rodrigo Nascimento 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.