Adlan Amagov vs TJ Waldburger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-2-1Record16-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamGrapplers Lair Fight Team
What's at stake
Adlan Amagov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — TJ Waldburger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1727
If they lose-22→ 1695
If they win+22→ 1614
If they lose-10→ 1582
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1560 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Adlan AmagovTJ Waldburger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Adlan Amagov78%
TJ Waldburger 22%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Adlan Amagov a 78% favorite over TJ Waldburger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Adlan Amagov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1717 to 1592, a 125-point edge.
Adlan Amagov enters on a 4-fight win streak.
TJ Waldburger enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Adlan Amagov finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, TJ Waldburger 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.